My cousin just graduated with a computer science degree. He’s working at a pool club. Meanwhile, his buddy from high school who became an electrician? He’s pulling in $90,000 a year and just bought a house.
This isn’t some random fluke. We’re watching a massive skilled trades career shift happening right now, and it’s flipping everything we thought we knew about success on its head. Young Americans are making this skilled trades career shift away from traditional college paths, and honestly? They might be onto something. This career shift toward skilled trades is rewriting the rulebook for Gen Z, and AI is the reason why.
Why Gen Z Is Making This Skilled Trades Career Shift
Here’s a stat that should make every guidance counselor rethink their advice: 42% of Gen Z are now working in or pursuing blue-collar jobs. That includes 37% of people with bachelor’s degrees. Let me repeat that—people who already have college degrees are choosing trades over cubicles.
Jacob Palmer, 23, runs his own electrical company. No college degree. He generated $90,000 in revenue his first year and is on track for $150,000 in 2025. Moreover, he’s got something office workers are desperately craving: job security.
“I don’t feel overly threatened by the growth of AI in my industry,” Palmer told CBS News. Can your average junior software developer say the same thing right now?
The AI Threat Is Real—And Young People See It
Geoffrey Hinton, the “Godfather of AI” and Nobel Prize winner, recently gave this career advice on a podcast: “Train to be a plumber.”
Think about that for a second. One of the world’s leading AI experts is telling people to learn trades. Furthermore, he’s not alone. Dario Amodei from Anthropic warns that nearly half of all entry-level white-collar jobs in tech, finance, law, and consulting could be replaced or eliminated by AI.
Meanwhile, 77% of Gen Zers surveyed say it’s critical that their future job is hard to automate. They’re pointing to careers like carpenter, plumber, and electrician as safe bets. By contrast, they see less security in software development, data analytics, and accounting.
The irony? We spent decades telling kids those white-collar jobs were the “smart choice.”
The Numbers Driving This Career Shift to Skilled Trades
Let’s talk data, because the trends are impossible to ignore.
According to Resume Builder’s 2025 survey, Gen Z workers cite two main reasons for choosing blue-collar work: avoiding student debt and reducing the risk of being replaced by AI. The average four-year college now costs $108,000. Most trade schools? Between a few thousand dollars and $25,000 total.
Additionally, Gen Z made up nearly 25% of all new hires in skilled trade industries in 2024, despite being only 18% of the workforce overall. That’s a massive overrepresentation showing where the momentum is heading.
The unemployment rate for recent college grads aged 22-27 hit 5.8% in April 2025. Young workers in the same age group faced 7.1% unemployment. Compare that to the skilled trades, where factories are short about 450,000 workers monthly, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.
Student Debt vs. Earning While Learning
Here’s where the math gets interesting. The median wage for college graduates in 2024 was $80,000, true. But that’s after four years of school and an average of $30,000 in student debt per person.
Electricians make a median of $62,350 annually. Plumbers earn $62,970. Construction workers average $46,050. However, these numbers don’t tell the full story. Many trade workers can start their own businesses after just a few years, dramatically increasing their earning potential.
Plus, most trade programs let you earn while you learn. “Earn as you learn,” as one union instructor put it. You work an eight-hour shift, then attend classes two or three nights a week. No crushing debt. No four years of opportunity cost.
The Social Media Effect on This Skilled Trades Shift
Something unexpected is driving this skilled trades career shift: TikTok and Instagram.
Two out of three Gen Zers say social media has increased their interest in the trades. Andrew Salgado, 20, spent days scrolling through videos about trade jobs before landing on HVAC. He was set to enroll in accounting but switched at the last minute after seeing real workers share their daily experiences.
Mary Millican, a 24-year-old electrician in Nevada, showcases her projects online. “It feels nice to be able to inspire people and make them do better for themselves,” she says.
This isn’t just vanity content. These videos demystify careers that previous generations viewed as “less than.” They show the variety of work, the problem-solving involved, and yes—the paycheck. Social media has become the second-largest driver of Gen Z career paths, surpassing teachers and guidance counselors.
Consequently, school districts are seeing unprecedented demand. Mesa Public Schools in Arizona reports more students enrolling in welding, construction, and auto shop programs than there’s space for.
What Makes This Career Shift to Trades Different
I’ve covered labor market shifts before, but this skilled trades career shift feels different. Here’s why.
First, it’s being driven by technology displacement rather than economic recession. Previous blue-collar comebacks happened during downturns. This time, it’s happening while the economy is technically strong—but AI is fundamentally changing which jobs exist.
Second, college graduates are part of the movement. This isn’t just high school grads skipping college. It’s people with degrees looking at the job market and saying, “Actually, I’ll take the wrench.”
Third, the speed of change is unprecedented. A recent MIT study found that 95% of AI pilot projects fail to yield meaningful results, yet companies are still cutting entry-level positions at record rates. Big tech companies now hire only 7% new graduates, down more than 50% from pre-pandemic levels.
The Entry-Level Job Apocalypse
LinkedIn’s chief economic opportunity officer warned that AI is breaking “the bottom rungs of the career ladder.” Junior software developers, paralegal assistants, first-year law associates—all the jobs where you once “cut your teeth” are vanishing.
Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, and Google invested $560 billion in AI infrastructure over two years. Their combined AI revenue? Just $35 billion. That massive gap tells you everything about where priorities lie. Automation first, hiring humans last.
Real Stories from the Skilled Trades Career Shift
Let me introduce you to Morgan Bradbury, 21. She discovered welding in high school and was mesmerized that she could build things with her own hands. After a nine-month certification course costing $21,000, she landed a job at BAE Systems with a starting salary of $57,000—before even finishing her program.
Then there’s Michael Macaluso, 22, who graduated with a mechanical engineering degree. He applied for roughly 200 positions in his field. Zero job offers. “I was told by a lot of people that I was going to get a job right out of college,” he said. “And then all of a sudden, there’s no jobs.”
Now he’s working as an assistant pool director while his friends in trades are building careers and equity.
The contrast is stark and getting starker. White-collar layoffs make headlines weekly. Meanwhile, skilled trade wages are rising faster than they have since Nixon’s presidency.
The Challenges Nobody Talks About
Before you throw out your college applications and sign up for electrician training, let’s be honest about the barriers.
Nearly 98% of Gen Z job seekers say they’d be more likely to pursue skilled trades if training were funded. Almost one in four cite financial resource barriers as a primary obstacle. Additionally, less than half of those in trades roles felt their training fully prepared them for responsibilities.
Physical demands matter too. These jobs require manual labor. Your body takes wear and tear that an office worker doesn’t experience. Work-life balance can be challenging, though 85% of Gen Z students entering trades rate it as critically important.
Furthermore, not everyone is cut out for hands-on work. Some people genuinely prefer intellectual labor over physical tasks. That’s completely valid. This skilled trades career shift isn’t right for everyone—it’s just now a legitimate option that we’ve ignored for too long.
What This Means for the Future of Work
Looking ahead, this shift has implications nobody’s fully grasped yet.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that openings for jobs in various trades will grow significantly—particularly notable as entry-level openings for college graduates stagnate. McKinsey estimates that annual U.S. hires in skilled trades could be more than 20 times the number of annual net new jobs between 2022 and 2032.
However, there’s a darker possibility. Some experts warn that even skilled trades aren’t immune forever. Boston Dynamics’ robots are already laying bricks and performing surgery. AI doesn’t sleep, doesn’t stop improving, and doesn’t plateau.
Tony Spagnoli, director of testing for North American Technician Excellence, pushes back on this concern. “AI can’t replace parts or make improvisational decisions,” he notes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics agrees for now, but “for now” is doing heavy lifting in that sentence.
Should You Make This Skilled Trades Career Shift?
If you’re reading this and reconsidering your career path, here’s my honest take.
The skilled trades career shift makes sense if:
- You’re facing massive student debt for uncertain job prospects
- You’re good with your hands and enjoy problem-solving
- You want to start earning money sooner rather than later
- You value job security and see AI as a genuine threat to white-collar work
- You’re entrepreneurial and interested in eventually running your own business
It doesn’t make sense if:
- You’re passionate about fields that genuinely require advanced degrees (medicine, research, etc.)
- Physical labor concerns you due to health or personal preference
- You’re already established in a white-collar career that’s thriving
- Your field has low AI displacement risk
Remember, 55% of Gen Z is now considering skilled trades—up 12% from last year. That momentum suggests this isn’t a fad. Moreover, with 4.2 million skilled workers planning to retire next year, the timing couldn’t be better for new entrants.
The Bottom Line
This skilled trades career shift represents a fundamental rethinking of what “success” looks like in America. For decades, we pushed every kid toward college and white-collar work. We created a weird stigma around manual labor, as if working with your hands was somehow inferior to working at a desk.
Now AI is exposing the vulnerability of that model. Turns out, jobs that require physical presence, improvisation, and human judgment are harder to automate than we thought. Meanwhile, entry-level office work—the stuff we told kids required a degree—is being eaten by software.
Geoffrey Hinton’s advice to “train to be a plumber” isn’t some throwaway comment. It’s a Nobel Prize winner looking at where technology is headed and giving honest guidance. When the person who helped create AI tells you to learn trades, maybe we should listen.
So yeah, my cousin with the computer science degree is rethinking his path. His electrician buddy, though? He’s doing just fine. Actually, better than fine.
Welcome to the new reality. Blue-collar is the new white-collar. And for a lot of young Americans making this skilled trades career shift, it’s not settling for less—it’s choosing more.
